Even though wine consumption in the US has increased every year since 2000, some of those years were a bit bumpy due to the recession and a tendency for consumers to purchase value-priced wines. Now in 2015, the trend of buying more premium-priced wines has resurfaced, and there is a renewed optimism in the US, spurred on by the strengthening dollar and a more buoyant economy.
A review of the 2014 wine statistics and buying trends for 2015 are primarily positive. The only gray cloud on the US wine horizon may the growing popularity of craft beer and spirits. However if the wine industry continues to innovate and assists in promoting a larger market share for all adult beverages, then the positive growth trend can continue.
Sources for this posting are primarily from speakers at the 2015 Unified Wine Symposium as well as recent reports. See references at end for details.
Statistics for the US Wine Industry in 2014
- Total estimated cases shipped: 375* million (Frederickson,2015)
- Percentage Imports = 31% (down from 34% in 2013; mainly from bulk)
- Percentage from California = 60%
- Percentage from Other States = 9%
- Revenues – not available yet, but estimated $35 – $38 billion
- *Note: Impact Databank estimates only 322 million cases sold in 2014
US Wineries & Consumption Rates
- Number of US Wineries in 2014: 8287 (Gordon, 2015)
- 5 Largest Wine Producing States: 1- California, 2- Washington, 3- Oregon, 4- New York, and 5- Virginia
- US Wine Consumption per Capita: 3.14 gallons (11.9 liters) in 2014 (Wine Market Council, 2015)
- Percentage of US Adults who drink wine: 40%
- Consumption Frequency: 33% drink wine several times per week and 67% drink wine occasionally
Channel Growth & Competition in 2014
- Off-Premise – more than 80% of wine in the US is still sold off-premise, with double digit growth in the $12-15; $15-20; $20 – 30; and over $30 categories (Brager, 2015). Still 75% of wine sold was under $9 per bottle (Frederickson, 2015)
- Direct to Consumer Shipping (DTC/Ecommerce) – 3.95 million cases shipped at $1.82 billion in sales, a 15.5% increase from 2013 (ShipCompliant, 2015). Average bottle price $38. Wineries can now ship to 90% of US states.
- On Premise Sales – slight increase in 2014 over previous years with wine value up 1.3%, but volume down 1.1% (Guest Metrics, Nov. 2014)
- Competition – number of craft breweries and craft spirits have increased more than 50% since 2008 (Frederickson, 2015), creating intense competition for wine
Hot Wine Trends Now and for 2015
- Trading Up – wine sales have increased in the $12 – 30 range and are expected to continue with the strong dollar, lower oil prices, and desire for more premium products
- Sparkling wine is “hot” – up 7% in 2014, and will continue to grow, especially Prosecco. There is opportunity for new brands in the sparkling market.
- Red Blends are still very popular, with brands like Apothic and Menage a Trois Red performing well. Opportunity for higher-priced red blends.
- Most popular varietals will continue to grow: Cabernet Sauvignon, Chardonnay, Pinot Grigio, Pinot Noir and Sauvignon Blanc from New Zealand
- Oregon & Washington coming on strong, with more interest in wine from these states
- Rose over $12 performed well this past year, and is expected to continue into 2015
- “Eco” Wines slowly gaining more attention with 16% of US wine consumers now looking for these labels. Potential increases for sustainable, organic, and biodynamic wine as consumers grow more concerned about environmental issues.
- Tetra Pak and 3 L Boxes selling well with continued growth in this area.
- Wine Kegs in restaurants selling both value-priced and premium wine by the glass are gaining positive attention from consumers, with expected growth here.
- Wine Apps are growing in popularity with up to 36% of US consumers using them to check prices and reviews before purchase
- Wine Cocktails are stirring positive reactions with Millennials (Franson, 2015). This could be an opportunity to create a new trend of “wine mixology.”
- Frederickson, J. (2015). State of the Industry. Presentation at Unified Wine & Grape Symposium, Sacramento, CA, Jan. 28, 2015.
- Brager, D. (2015. Wine Trends or Fads? Presentation at Unified Wine & Grape Symposium, Sacramento, CA, Jan. 28, 2015.
- Forbes (2015). 2015 Wine Trends and Predictions from Silicon Valley Bank. Retrieved on Feb. 8, 2015 at http://www.forbes.com/sites/cathyhuyghe/2015/01/21/happening-now-2015-wine-trends-and-predictions-from-silicon-valley-bank/
- Franson, P. (2015). Wine Trends for 2015. Napa Valley Register, Jan. 8, 2015. Retrieved on Feb. 8, 2015 at http://napavalleyregister.com/news/local/wine-trends-for/article_09a8d3a5-1311-5654-85e7-250952049c31.html
- Gordon, J. (2015). Number of North American Wineries Grows 7%. Wines & Vines, Jan. 27, 2015. Retrieved on Feb. 8 at http://www.winesandvines.com/template.cfm?section=news&content=145325
- Guest Metrics (2014). On-Premise Performance Continues Better than YTD Trends. Guest Metric.Com News, Nov. 20, 2014. Retrieved on Feb. 8 at http://www.guestmetrics.com/2014/11/20/on-premise-performance-continues-better-than-ytd-trends/
- Impact Databank (2015). US Wine Market Ekes Out Growth. Impact Newsletter, Jan. 1 & 15, 2015
- McMillan, R. (2015). Future Proofing Your Business – Economics. Presentation at Unified Wine & Grape Symposium, Sacramento, CA, Jan. 29, 2015.
- McMillan, R. (2015). State of the Wine Industry 2015. Silicon Valley Bank Report. Available at http://www.svb.com/uploadedFiles/Content/Blogs/Wine_Report/2015_Wine_Report/wine-report-2015-pdf.pdf
- Penn, C. (2015). Industry Outlook & Trends. Wine Business Monthly, Feb. 2015.
- Ship Compliant (2015). 2015 Direct to Consumer Wine Shipping Report. Retrieved on Feb. 8 at http://www-staging.shipcompliant.com/
- Thach, L. (2015). Future Proofing Your Business – Global Market Trends. Presentation at Unified Wine & Grape Symposium, Sacramento, CA, Jan. 29, 2015.
- Thach, L.,Olsen, J. & Atkin, T. (2014). Snapshot of the American Wine Consumer. Wine Business.com, Dec. 12, 2014. Available at: http://www.winebusiness.com/news/?go=getArticle&dataid=142634
- Wine Institute (2014). Wine Consumption in the US. Retrieved on Feb. 8, 2015 at http://www.wineinstitute.org/resources/statistics/article86
- Wine Market Council (2015). 10th Annual Presentation of US Wine Consumer Trends. Napa, CA February 6, 2015.